Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

-114— stable

player points

Cade Cunningham Under 26.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

-114— stable

player points

27.70

Composite Score

+1.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

6.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a competitive game against the Spurs, there are significant factors suggesting that Cade Cunningham will struggle to exceed 26.5 points. The Spurs lead the league in defensive efficiency, which effectively limits scoring opportunities, and the tight matchup could lead to a more balanced offensive approach for the Pistons, diminishing Cunningham's volume. Given the Net EV of 0.01, it's a slight advantage indicating the market may be mispricing his scoring potential, making this a reasonable lean towards the Under.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Cade Cunningham's recent points per game average is 24.2 over his last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 26.5 points he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: San Antonio Spurs are currently leading the league in defensive efficiency, which indicates they can effectively limit key scoring players like Cunningham.
→NARRATIVE: A small spread of 1.5 suggests a competitive game, which could lead to fewer scoring opportunities for Cunningham if he has to share numbers with other starters in close situations.
→TREND: Cunningham has not surpassed 26.5 points in over half of his last 5 games, indicating he is currently trending downward and not meeting high-scoring expectations.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a winning streak, meaning they may rely on a more balanced offensive attack rather than leaning heavily on Cunningham to score, limiting his chances to exceed the 26.5-point mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Cade Cunningham has a points per game average of 26.1 this season, just under the threshold, but his minutes per game at 35.0 and high FG% of 46.9% indicate strong scoring potential.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' defensive efficiency has been suspect at times this season, which could allow Cunningham to exploit mismatches and score effectively against them.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5, this game is expected to be a high-scoring affair, which typically correlates with higher individual point totals for key players like Cunningham.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Cunningham has been averaging 24.2 points per game but has been increasing his scoring attempts, with 19.8 FG attempts per game, suggesting he is on the verge of breaking through the 26.5-point mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak and playing at home, where Cunningham tends to perform better, bolstering his chances to exceed 26.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Cade Cunningham's recent points per game average is 24.2 over his last 5 games, which is below the threshold of 26.5 points he needs to exceed.
→MATCHUP: San Antonio Spurs are currently leading the league in defensive efficiency, which indicates they can effectively limit key scoring players like Cunningham.
→NARRATIVE: A small spread of 1.5 suggests a competitive game, which could lead to fewer scoring opportunities for Cunningham if he has to share numbers with other starters in close situations.
→TREND: Cunningham has not surpassed 26.5 points in over half of his last 5 games, indicating he is currently trending downward and not meeting high-scoring expectations.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a winning streak, meaning they may rely on a more balanced offensive attack rather than leaning heavily on Cunningham to score, limiting his chances to exceed the 26.5-point mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

Related Wagers

Cade Cunningham Under 0.5 steals💤

+183+9.7% EV

Jalen Duren Under 16.5 points💤

+100+9.0% EV

Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 threes🎯

+142+8.5% EV

Jalen Duren Under 16.5 points🎯

-105+8.1% EV

Ron Holland Under 6.5 points💤

-110+6.7% EV