Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 11.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
-105↓5%|+5
player rebounds assists
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 11.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
-105↓5%|+5
player rebounds assists
27.40
Composite Score
+5.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
21.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Hartenstein's Under 11.5 rebounds and assists makes sense given the expectation of limited playtime due to a likely blowout, especially considering he averages just 23.2 minutes in recent games. Additionally, the Oklahoma City Thunder's upper-tier defense further diminishes his chances to hit this total, aligning with the narrative of a game where Hartenstein might not see enough court time to exceed the line. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates a slight advantage in this bet, reflecting that the market may have slightly undervalued his performance potential in this specific matchup context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Hartenstein's recent average of 8.4 rebounds per game and 1.6 assists per game totals only 10.0 combined, well below the threshold of 11.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are ranked in the upper tier defensively, which limits opposing players' stats. This strong defense is likely to hinder Hartenstein's ability to accumulate rebounds and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is projected to be a blowout with Oklahoma City favored by 8 points. If the game gets out of hand, Hartenstein may not play significant minutes to reach the necessary stats for overs.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Hartenstein has only exceeded 11.5 rebounds and assists combined once, showcasing a consistent underperformance relative to this threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Hartenstein is averaging just 23.2 minutes per game in his last five outings. Limited playing time restricts his opportunities to accumulate the necessary statistics for this outcome.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Isaiah Hartenstein has averaged 8.4 rebounds over his last five games, and his season average of 10.7 rebounds per game indicates he has the capacity to exceed the combined threshold of 11.5 rebounds + assists.
- →MATCHUP: In the previous matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Hartenstein recorded 12 rebounds and has shown the ability to perform well against them, which suggests a favorable matchup for exceeding his rebound and assist totals.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 233.5, indicating a high-scoring affair that typically leads to more possessions and opportunities for Hartenstein to contribute in rebounds and assists, increasing his chances of exceeding 11.5 total.
- →TREND: Hartenstein has recently shown a stronger offensive presence, contributing 1.6 assists per game in his last five outings, which, coupled with his rebounding prowess, enhances the likelihood of hitting the over on his proposed total.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Oklahoma City Thunder are considered heavy favorites with a -8 spread, suggesting they may dictate the pace of play, which could lead to more high-tempo opportunities for Hartenstein to rack up rebounds and assists in a competitive environment.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Hartenstein's recent average of 8.4 rebounds per game and 1.6 assists per game totals only 10.0 combined, well below the threshold of 11.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Oklahoma City Thunder are ranked in the upper tier defensively, which limits opposing players' stats. This strong defense is likely to hinder Hartenstein's ability to accumulate rebounds and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game is projected to be a blowout with Oklahoma City favored by 8 points. If the game gets out of hand, Hartenstein may not play significant minutes to reach the necessary stats for overs.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Hartenstein has only exceeded 11.5 rebounds and assists combined once, showcasing a consistent underperformance relative to this threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Hartenstein is averaging just 23.2 minutes per game in his last five outings. Limited playing time restricts his opportunities to accumulate the necessary statistics for this outcome.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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