Back to Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander double double
💤 Noise Bet
+475↑5%|-25
player double double
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander double double
💤 Noise Bet
+475↑5%|-25
player double double
33.40
Composite Score
-0.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
2.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The context of the game suggests that while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the potential to score significantly, his recent trend of underperformance against the Nuggets paired with Denver's strong defensive capabilities makes achieving a double-double unlikely. The Net EV of -0.01 reflects a balanced view that leans against this wager given the notable concerns about minutes in a potential blowout and Gilgeous-Alexander's statistical trends versus this matchup. Therefore, taking a pass on this bet makes the most sense.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander displays solid stats with season averages of 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists, which positions him well to achieve a double-double given his scoring and playmaking ability.
- →MATCHUP: The Thunder face the Denver Nuggets, who have historically allowed players to post high stats, providing a favorable matchup scenario for Gilgeous-Alexander to exploit.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total being set at 233.5 indicates a high-scoring affair, which often leads to increased stats across the board, enhancing the likelihood of Gilgeous-Alexander hitting a double-double.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 5.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds, indicating a trend towards heavier involvement in playmaking, making a double-double more attainable.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 8.0 points, they are likely to remain competitive and keep their starters on the court longer, thereby increasing Gilgeous-Alexander's minutes and opportunity to accumulate stats.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's recent averages show only 3.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game over his last five games, indicating he is unlikely to reach 10 in either category for a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: The Denver Nuggets have a strong defensive unit, ranking high in limiting assists and rebounds, which will challenge Gilgeous-Alexander's ability to reach double figures in both categories.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread of Oklahoma City Thunder at -8.0, there's a strong possibility of a blowout, meaning Gilgeous-Alexander could see reduced minutes and opportunities to accumulate stats, adversely affecting his chances for a double-double.
- →TREND: In his last five games against the Denver Nuggets, he has failed to achieve a double-double, averaging only 4.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists in those matchups, indicating a pattern of underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Thunder are coming off a loss and might tighten their rotation against a strong opponent; combined with potential benching in a blowout scenario, this undermines the likelihood of Gilgeous-Alexander hitting double-double stats.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander displays solid stats with season averages of 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists, which positions him well to achieve a double-double given his scoring and playmaking ability.
- →MATCHUP: The Thunder face the Denver Nuggets, who have historically allowed players to post high stats, providing a favorable matchup scenario for Gilgeous-Alexander to exploit.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total being set at 233.5 indicates a high-scoring affair, which often leads to increased stats across the board, enhancing the likelihood of Gilgeous-Alexander hitting a double-double.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 5.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds, indicating a trend towards heavier involvement in playmaking, making a double-double more attainable.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Oklahoma City Thunder favored by 8.0 points, they are likely to remain competitive and keep their starters on the court longer, thereby increasing Gilgeous-Alexander's minutes and opportunity to accumulate stats.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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