Back to Dayton Flyers @ GW Revolutionaries
Dayton Flyers ML
🧠 Conviction Bet
+125↑11%|-15
h2h
Dayton Flyers ML
🧠 Conviction Bet
+125↑11%|-15
h2h
40.30
Composite Score
+1.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
10.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The overall assessment indicates a slightly positive edge for Dayton, but the narrative is balanced, leaving little confidence in a clear outcome. With a close spread of 2.5 in favor of GW, home-court advantage likely plays a significant role, plus Dayton's inconsistent away performance raises concerns. The Net EV of 0.02 suggests that this bet is nearly a toss-up, which indicates that the potential reward does not justify the risk.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 55%
Evidence
- →STATS: The Dayton Flyers have a solid overall record of 19-9, including a strong away record of 4-5, which indicates they can perform competently even outside of their home environment.
- →MATCHUP: The spread suggests a very close game with GW Revolutionaries favored by only 2.5 points, indicating that oddsmakers expect a competitive matchup where Dayton has a legitimate chance to win.
- →NARRATIVE: Given Dayton's current four-game winning streak, they are likely carrying positive momentum, which can lead to better performance in tightly contested games like this one.
- →TREND: Dayton's recent form shows a strong turnaround, winning their last few games, which can create a confidence boost heading into an important match against GW.
- →SITUATIONAL: The line movement from +150 to +124 indicates that sharp money is coming in on Dayton, suggesting that influential bettors are confident in the Flyers' ability to pull off an upset.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: Dayton Flyers have a poor away record of 4-5, indicating struggles on the road that could hinder their chances against GW.
- →MATCHUP: The GW Revolutionaries hold the home-court advantage, which often leads to increased performance and energy levels, making it tougher for Dayton to secure a win.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread of -2.5 in favor of GW indicates confidence in their ability to win, suggesting that oddsmakers expect a competitive game that likely tilts toward the home team.
- →TREND: Dayton has recently faced an unknown opponent in their last game, raising concerns about their preparedness against GW, who may have had a stronger and more consistent recent performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Line movement from +150 to +124 indicates that sharp money is backing GW, reflecting shifting expectations that could signal a lack of confidence in Dayton's ability to pull off an away win.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 55%
Evidence
- →STATS: The Dayton Flyers have a solid overall record of 19-9, including a strong away record of 4-5, which indicates they can perform competently even outside of their home environment.
- →MATCHUP: The spread suggests a very close game with GW Revolutionaries favored by only 2.5 points, indicating that oddsmakers expect a competitive matchup where Dayton has a legitimate chance to win.
- →NARRATIVE: Given Dayton's current four-game winning streak, they are likely carrying positive momentum, which can lead to better performance in tightly contested games like this one.
- →TREND: Dayton's recent form shows a strong turnaround, winning their last few games, which can create a confidence boost heading into an important match against GW.
- →SITUATIONAL: The line movement from +150 to +124 indicates that sharp money is coming in on Dayton, suggesting that influential bettors are confident in the Flyers' ability to pull off an upset.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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