The market got this one backwards. Yes, GW opened as -2.5 favorites at home, but that's precisely when smart money started dismantling the line. Dayton's moneyline has steamed from +150 to +124 across FanDuel and DraftKings while GW drifted from -188 to -154—a synchronized collapse that only happens when professionals systematically reject a favored team's pricing. This isn't public sentiment noise; this is sharps saying the 2.5-point spread doesn't adequately compensate for Dayton's advantages. The mathematical edge lies in Dayton's transparent offensive efficiency versus GW's analytical void. Dayton's top four scorers—De'Shayne Montgomery (50.5% FG, 12.0 PPG), Keonte Jones (52.3% FG, 11.1 PPG), Javon Bennett (82.5% FT, 11.2 PPG), and Amaël L'Etang (51% FG, 9.3 PPG)—provide reliable half-court execution that translates across venues. Meanwhile, GW's limited statistical availability (no depth chart, missing game data, injury reporting gaps) creates information asymmetry that sharps exploit by backing the measurable team. Four straight wins validate Dayton's recent offensive consistency, suggesting those 4-5 road losses clustered earlier in the season before the roster solidified. Dayton's 14-2 home record versus 4-5 away split looks alarming until context matters: a 10-game win-percentage gap between venues is massive, but the current form trajectory suggests road struggles were early-season...