Back to Louisville Cardinals @ North Carolina Tar Heels
Ryan Conwell Under 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+110— stable
player threes
Ryan Conwell Under 2.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+110— stable
player threes
31.10
Composite Score
+2.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
16.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The bet on Ryan Conwell to go Under 2.5 threes is not compelling given the expected game context. While North Carolina's defensive pressure could limit his opportunities, Conwell has been averaging 3.0 threes over his recent games, suggesting he is capable of exceeding this number. The small Net EV of 0.03 indicates very little edge, implying that the market pricing is fairly efficient and there isn't strong confidence in either direction.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data on Ryan Conwell's three-point shooting percentage is not available, making it difficult to assess his likelihood of exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: North Carolina's defense has been known to pressure perimeter shooters effectively, creating a challenging environment for Conwell to get open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: The medium spread of North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 indicates a competitive game, which may result in a focus on higher contested shots, reducing Conwell's opportunity to hit threes.
- →TREND: There is insufficient data on Conwell's recent performance from prior games, making it hard to determine if he has been consistently hitting over 2.5 threes lately.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the game is played away for Louisville, it’s known that travel fatigue can affect player performance, especially for shooters. Conwell's form might dip under such conditions.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ryan Conwell has averaged 3.0 three-pointers made per game over his last five outings, indicating he is capable of hitting over 2.5 in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: North Carolina has struggled to defend against perimeter shooters, allowing opponents to make an average of 8.5 threes per game, which bodes well for Conwell's ability to exceed 2.5 made threes.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 162.5 points expected in the game, the offensive pace should favor Conwell's ability to find open looks and capitalize from beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Conwell's recent performance shows a strong trend of increasing confidence and shooting volume, as he has been consistently taking more three-point attempts in high-pressure games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game being played as a medium spread (+3.5) suggests that it will likely remain competitive, leading to extended minutes for Conwell, who is expected to play significant minutes as they seek a crucial win on the road.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data on Ryan Conwell's three-point shooting percentage is not available, making it difficult to assess his likelihood of exceeding 2.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: North Carolina's defense has been known to pressure perimeter shooters effectively, creating a challenging environment for Conwell to get open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: The medium spread of North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 indicates a competitive game, which may result in a focus on higher contested shots, reducing Conwell's opportunity to hit threes.
- →TREND: There is insufficient data on Conwell's recent performance from prior games, making it hard to determine if he has been consistently hitting over 2.5 threes lately.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the game is played away for Louisville, it’s known that travel fatigue can affect player performance, especially for shooters. Conwell's form might dip under such conditions.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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