Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford Over 13.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1100↓120%|+600
player rebounds alternate
Daniel Gafford Over 13.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1100↓120%|+600
player rebounds alternate
45.50
Composite Score
+16.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
62.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In the matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks, a high-scoring game is anticipated due to the total set at 238.5, which aligns with Gafford potentially having more rebounding opportunities. While his recent stats show an average of only 7.0 rebounds, the matchup against a struggling Memphis defense is likely to lead to more boards being available. The Net EV of 0.17 indicates some value in this bet, suggesting the market may not have fully recognized Gafford's potential in this context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 7.0 rebounds over the last 5 games, showing he can consistently contribute on the boards.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are struggling defensively, allowing opponents to have increased rebounding opportunities, which should benefit Gafford.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 in this matchup, a fast-paced game is expected, leading to more rebounds available for both teams' players.
- →TREND: In his recent matchup against the Mavericks, Gafford recorded 8.0 rebounds, indicating he has the capability to perform well against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both teams are in a tight playoff race, which suggests a closely contested game, likely keeping Gafford on the floor longer, increasing his chances to gather rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's recent average of 7.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games is significantly below the 11.5 rebound threshold, suggesting he has not been consistently producing at that level.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks have a strong defensive presence in the paint and are ranked with decent defensive metrics against rebounds, making it harder for Gafford to secure a higher rebound count in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high projected total of 238.5 points, the game may feature a fast pace. However, faster gameplay typically leads to more scoring opportunities rather than increased rebounding, working against Gafford’s chances of exceeding the rebound threshold.
- →TREND: Gafford has struggled to hit double-digit rebounds consistently, with only one instance in his last 5 games hitting 8 rebounds against the Mavericks before, and thus lacks the trend needed to suggest he will exceed 11.5 rebounds.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Gafford averaging only 18.8 minutes per game recently, it limits his opportunities to gather rebounds, especially if the game remains competitive and he plays fewer minutes due to potential matchups with Dallas's forwards.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 7.0 rebounds over the last 5 games, showing he can consistently contribute on the boards.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are struggling defensively, allowing opponents to have increased rebounding opportunities, which should benefit Gafford.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 238.5 in this matchup, a fast-paced game is expected, leading to more rebounds available for both teams' players.
- →TREND: In his recent matchup against the Mavericks, Gafford recorded 8.0 rebounds, indicating he has the capability to perform well against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: Both teams are in a tight playoff race, which suggests a closely contested game, likely keeping Gafford on the floor longer, increasing his chances to gather rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available