Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford Over 12.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1000↓59%|+370
player rebounds alternate
Daniel Gafford Over 12.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1000↓59%|+370
player rebounds alternate
41.70
Composite Score
+9.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
38.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, although Daniel Gafford is positioned to gather rebounds due to the high-scoring narrative (game total of 238.5), his recent performance shows a consistent struggle to reach the Over at 11.5 rebounds, averaging only 7.0 rebounds in his last five games. The narrative from the anti agent about possible limited rebounding opportunities against a balanced Mavericks frontcourt paired with Gafford's reduced average minutes (18.8) outweighs the pro agent's points, leading to a low final Net EV of 0.10, indicating minimal value. Therefore, betting on Gafford to exceed 11.5 rebounds doesn’t project well under these circumstances.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, showing he is consistently close to the target of 11.5 rebounds despite averaging 21.5 minutes per game.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are 12th in total rebounds allowed per game, which suggests that there will be plenty of opportunities for Gafford to gather rebounds within the game.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 238.5 indicates a high-scoring affair, which often correlates with increased possessions and more rebounding opportunities, thus increasing Gafford's chance to exceed the 11.5 mark.
- →TREND: Over the past five games against the Mavericks, Gafford has reached or exceeded 8 rebounds on multiple occasions, indicating a favorable trend in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the current losing streak of the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks, both teams may scramble for extra possessions, translating to more rebounding chances for Gafford during the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3910641/daniel-gafford, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford is averaging only 7.0 rebounds over his last five games and has not exceeded 11.5 rebounds in any of those games, indicating a consistent struggle to reach this threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are ranked as a middle-tier rebounding team this season, which could limit Gafford's opportunities for rebounds against a more balanced frontcourt.
- →NARRATIVE: With the high total of 238.5, both teams may focus on fast-paced offensive play leading to fewer rebounding opportunities for Gafford who averages only 18.8 minutes on the court, potentially limiting his minutes further.
- →TREND: In Gafford's previous matchups against the Dallas Mavericks, he only managed 8 rebounds in one game and 5 in another over limited minutes, showing that he struggles against this particular opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford's minutes have dropped recently, averaging just 18.8 minutes per game, which significantly decreases his chances to gather enough rebounds to exceed 11.5 in this upcoming game.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford is averaging 7.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, showing he is consistently close to the target of 11.5 rebounds despite averaging 21.5 minutes per game.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are 12th in total rebounds allowed per game, which suggests that there will be plenty of opportunities for Gafford to gather rebounds within the game.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 238.5 indicates a high-scoring affair, which often correlates with increased possessions and more rebounding opportunities, thus increasing Gafford's chance to exceed the 11.5 mark.
- →TREND: Over the past five games against the Mavericks, Gafford has reached or exceeded 8 rebounds on multiple occasions, indicating a favorable trend in this matchup.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the current losing streak of the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks, both teams may scramble for extra possessions, translating to more rebounding chances for Gafford during the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3910641/daniel-gafford, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies
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