Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks

Total Under 238.5

💤 Noise Bet

-110— stable

totals

Total Under 238.5

💤 Noise Bet

-110— stable

totals

31.50

Composite Score

+2.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

10.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

With a final Net EV of just 0.03, this wager on the Under 238.5 points lacks a strong edge. The fact that both teams have been struggling to find offensive rhythm, coupled with the narrative of lower-scoring games indicated by their recent performances, suggests that a low-scoring outcome is more probable. However, the opposing evidence regarding their scoring averages and defensive inefficiencies creates inconsistency, making this a risky bet without enough compelling support on either side.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks have both struggled offensively, as indicated by their losing records and low winning percentages (both around 36%), suggesting a tendency for lower scoring games.
→MATCHUP: Dallas has a porous defense but Memphis's inefficient offense, ranked near the bottom of the league, likely won't capitalize on the Mavericks' shortcomings, leading to fewer overall points.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are on losing streaks (Grizzlies at 3 games and Mavericks at 1), the overall mood and execution are likely to be lackluster, contributing to lower scores than expected.
→TREND: Over the last few games, both teams have shown an inability to convert their offensive plays efficiently, as shown by their recent performances in which they scored significantly less than their high total projections.
→SITUATIONAL: The teams have a history of playing with lower scores given their current standing and potential load management, which might lead to strategic planning focusing more on defense than on increasing scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: The current total of 238.5 points signifies a high-scoring expectation, which is supported by both teams averaging over 110 points per game this season.
→MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks are both struggling defensively, allowing over 120 points in their last outings, indicating potential for a high-scoring game.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams ranking near the bottom in defensive efficiency, it's reasonable to anticipate a pace-driven game that could lead to exceeding the total points.
→TREND: In their last five matchups, these two teams have combined for an average of over 240 points, showcasing a consistent trend towards high-scoring encounters.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are in a state of urgency with records below .500, which typically elevates offensive output in high-pressure situations, potentially pushing the total score over 238.5.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks have both struggled offensively, as indicated by their losing records and low winning percentages (both around 36%), suggesting a tendency for lower scoring games.
→MATCHUP: Dallas has a porous defense but Memphis's inefficient offense, ranked near the bottom of the league, likely won't capitalize on the Mavericks' shortcomings, leading to fewer overall points.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are on losing streaks (Grizzlies at 3 games and Mavericks at 1), the overall mood and execution are likely to be lackluster, contributing to lower scores than expected.
→TREND: Over the last few games, both teams have shown an inability to convert their offensive plays efficiently, as shown by their recent performances in which they scored significantly less than their high total projections.
→SITUATIONAL: The teams have a history of playing with lower scores given their current standing and potential load management, which might lead to strategic planning focusing more on defense than on increasing scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2