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Josh Hart Under 11.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
+103— stable
player rebounds assists
Josh Hart Under 11.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
+103— stable
player rebounds assists
30.00
Composite Score
+7.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
29.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The bet on Josh Hart Under 11.5 rebounds and assists aligns well with the expected game script against the Milwaukee Bucks, who possess a strong rebounding presence that is likely to limit Hart's opportunities. Despite his average performances, the presence of the Bucks' defense, combined with a lower-scoring expected total of 218.5, suggests Hart might struggle to reach this threshold in a game that could potentially see limited possessions. The Net EV of 0.08 supports the notion that this bet is slightly underpriced, making it a reasonable lean.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Josh Hart's verified averages show he only averages 7.6 rebounds in his last five games, which is well below the threshold of 11.5 when combined with his assist average of 4.0, confirming he is not on pace to hit this combined total.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have a strong rebounding presence, which likely reduces Hart's opportunities to grab rebounds. Against teams with significant rebounding capabilities, players often see their rebound numbers dip.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 218.5, it suggests a moderately paced game, which can limit cumulative stats such as rebounds and assists, making it difficult for Hart to achieve a combined total of 11.5.
- →TREND: In the previous five appearances, Hart has failed to meet or exceed 11.5 rebounds and assists in three of those games, showcasing an inconsistency that makes it unlikely for him to reach this threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are coming off a loss and may not be able to perform optimally against the Bucks. Additionally, the spread of +8.5 indicates a potential blowout risk, which could result in fewer minutes for Hart if the game gets out of hand.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Josh Hart averages 9.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists this season, combining for a total of 15.5, which indicates he regularly exceeds the 11.5 threshold for rebounds plus assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks rank in the lower half of the league in allowing assists, meaning Hart is likely to see increased opportunities to both rebound and distribute the ball in this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 218.5, indicating expectations for a higher-scoring affair, which typically results in more possessions and ultimately more opportunities for Hart to accumulate rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Hart has averaged 4.0 assists per game and 7.6 rebounds per game, averaging a total of 11.6 combined, showing he's consistently reaching or surpassing this line.
- →SITUATIONAL: The large spread of +8.5 suggests the game could be competitive, allowing Hart to play increased minutes, as close games typically require star players to stay on the court longer, which boosts their overall stats.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Josh Hart's verified averages show he only averages 7.6 rebounds in his last five games, which is well below the threshold of 11.5 when combined with his assist average of 4.0, confirming he is not on pace to hit this combined total.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have a strong rebounding presence, which likely reduces Hart's opportunities to grab rebounds. Against teams with significant rebounding capabilities, players often see their rebound numbers dip.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 218.5, it suggests a moderately paced game, which can limit cumulative stats such as rebounds and assists, making it difficult for Hart to achieve a combined total of 11.5.
- →TREND: In the previous five appearances, Hart has failed to meet or exceed 11.5 rebounds and assists in three of those games, showcasing an inconsistency that makes it unlikely for him to reach this threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are coming off a loss and may not be able to perform optimally against the Bucks. Additionally, the spread of +8.5 indicates a potential blowout risk, which could result in fewer minutes for Hart if the game gets out of hand.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats
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