North Carolina is 15-0 at home while Louisville is 3-5 on the road—a 30-point swing in win probability ignored by the 2.5-point line. Home court advantage typically costs 3 points; this spread assigns only 2.5, undervaluing a team with perfect home...
Back Durant over 28.5 points (-110). With Jaren Jackson Jr. out, Utah loses its only rim protector capable of creating discomfort on Durant's pick-and-roll operations. Durant's 55% 3PT rate and 92.3% FT rate over last five games indicate peak...
San Antonio finished consecutive games while Detroit is fully rested at home where they average 117.6 PPG with +8.3 differential. NBA back-to-backs cost teams 3-4 efficiency points on average; the -1 spread undervalues this significantly. Detroit...
Kansas owns 11-2 Allen Fieldhouse record yet remains +2.5 underdog, while Houston is 0-2 on recent road travel. Historical data shows home underdogs with winning records hit 54%+ ATS. With senior night motivation (Council Jr., White, Dawson) and...
