Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Tomislav Ivisic Under 10.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-132— stable

player points

Tomislav Ivisic Under 10.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-132— stable

player points

22.70

Composite Score

-3.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

10.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Tomislav Ivisic Under 10.5 points doesn't align well with the anticipated game narrative. Despite the strong defensive capabilities of the Michigan Wolverines, the context of a closely contested game may lead to more scoring opportunities as Illinois tries to keep pace. The Net EV of -0.03 indicates that the market has correctly priced this wager, further supported by Ivisic's potential need to contribute significantly in a high-pressure matchup. Thus, there isn’t enough value to justify the bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Tomislav Ivisic's season scoring average and recent game performances indicate that he typically struggles to score in double digits, making it unlikely he will exceed 10.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines, ranked #3 nationally, have a strong defense that could limit Ivisic's scoring opportunities significantly, particularly against a team of their caliber.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this is a critical matchup between ranked teams, the intensity of the game may lead to tighter defensive schemes which could restrict Ivisic's ability to score freely.
→TREND: In recent games, especially against higher-ranked teams, Ivisic has consistently failed to hit double digits, indicating a trend of underperformance against stronger defenses.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread for this game is tight at Illinois +1.5, suggesting a close contest where scoring may be lower than expected; close games can lead to fewer scoring opportunities for role players like Ivisic.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Tomislav Ivisic is a key player for Illinois, and given the high total of 158.5, we can expect a higher pace of play, which often leads to increased scoring opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's matchup against the Michigan Wolverines suggests that they will need to match their scoring to compete effectively, which should benefit Ivisic's scoring chances.
→NARRATIVE: With Illinois currently holding a close spread of +1.5 against Michigan, this indicates a likely competitive matchup where Ivisic will have to step up to contribute significantly, including scoring.
→TREND: The Illinois Fighting Illini have scored well at home with a 13-2 home record, and this environment typically boosts individual player performance, including Ivisic's scoring output.
→SITUATIONAL: The game context shows that this is a crucial matchup between two strong conference teams, which often leads to heightened individual performances, supporting the idea that Ivisic will exceed 10.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Tomislav Ivisic's season scoring average and recent game performances indicate that he typically struggles to score in double digits, making it unlikely he will exceed 10.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines, ranked #3 nationally, have a strong defense that could limit Ivisic's scoring opportunities significantly, particularly against a team of their caliber.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this is a critical matchup between ranked teams, the intensity of the game may lead to tighter defensive schemes which could restrict Ivisic's ability to score freely.
→TREND: In recent games, especially against higher-ranked teams, Ivisic has consistently failed to hit double digits, indicating a trend of underperformance against stronger defenses.
→SITUATIONAL: The spread for this game is tight at Illinois +1.5, suggesting a close contest where scoring may be lower than expected; close games can lead to fewer scoring opportunities for role players like Ivisic.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2