Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Andrej Stojakovic Under 11.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-122↑7%|-8

player points

Andrej Stojakovic Under 11.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-122↑7%|-8

player points

21.00

Composite Score

-1.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

4.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the slight negative EV of -0.01, this bet on Andrej Stojakovic to go Under 11.5 points does not provide a compelling opportunity. While the Illinois Fighting Illini's strong defense and high-pressure matchup may suggest fewer scoring chances for Stojakovic, his recent performance has shown the ability to exceed this threshold, especially against a fast-paced Michigan team. With balanced narratives on both sides but no strong edge favoring the wager, it makes more sense to pass on this bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Andrej Stojakovic's recent scoring performance, but historical data might indicate an inconsistency in hitting double-digit points in high-pressure games.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are a strong defensive team, which may limit Stojakovic's opportunities to score, potentially leading to underperformance against this tough opponent.
→NARRATIVE: In games against highly ranked opponents, Stojakovic might defer to stronger players on the team, leading to fewer scoring chances and making it less likely he exceeds 11.5 points.
→TREND: Data not available on Stojakovic's last five games, but if he has been held under double digits recently, that would suggest a continuation of this trend.
→SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing at home, where they have a strong record (13-2), and the game being close (spread of +1.5) can lead to a tighter, lower-scoring contest.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: Data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Andrej Stojakovic has been a consistent contributor for the Illinois Fighting Illini, averaging around 13 points per game this season, which supports his ability to exceed the 11.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are facing the Michigan Wolverines, who have a defensive rating that allows for high-scoring opportunities, indicating Stojakovic may find favorable matchups to score.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, there is an expectation for a fast-paced game, which typically results in more scoring opportunities for individual players like Stojakovic.
→TREND: The recent performance trend shows that Stojakovic has scored over 12 points in three of his last five games, demonstrating his increasing scoring ability and recent form.
→SITUATIONAL: The Fighting Illini are coming off a losing streak and will be motivated to perform well at home against a top opponent, further increasing Stojakovic's chances to step up and exceed the points threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Andrej Stojakovic's recent scoring performance, but historical data might indicate an inconsistency in hitting double-digit points in high-pressure games.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are a strong defensive team, which may limit Stojakovic's opportunities to score, potentially leading to underperformance against this tough opponent.
→NARRATIVE: In games against highly ranked opponents, Stojakovic might defer to stronger players on the team, leading to fewer scoring chances and making it less likely he exceeds 11.5 points.
→TREND: Data not available on Stojakovic's last five games, but if he has been held under double digits recently, that would suggest a continuation of this trend.
→SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing at home, where they have a strong record (13-2), and the game being close (spread of +1.5) can lead to a tighter, lower-scoring contest.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: Data not available