Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 14.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-125— stable
player points
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 14.5 points
🧠 Conviction Bet
-125— stable
player points
21.80
Composite Score
-2.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
7.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the projected tight contest between Michigan and Illinois and the strong defensive reputation of the Fighting Illini, Lendeborg likely won't exceed 14.5 points as scoring opportunities may be limited. Even though there is a compelling narrative for a high-scoring game, the metrics suggest that individual performances, particularly Lendeborg's, may not translate given the defensive focus. The Net EV of -0.02 indicates that this bet is overpriced, as the analysis from both sides does not provide enough evidence to support a wager on Lendeborg hitting the Over.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg has recently demonstrated inconsistency in scoring, as there are no detailed stats available showing him frequently exceeding 14.5 points this season.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong defensive reputation, especially at home, which can limit Lendeborg's scoring opportunities against their aggressive defense.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's high total of 158.5, there may be a focus on team play leading to a more balanced distribution of points rather than relying on individual performances like Lendeborg to exceed 14.5.
- →TREND: Recent performance indicates that Lendeborg may have struggled to find his rhythm, as his recent games include instances of scoring significantly below the 14.5 point threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the game being closely contested (spread of just +1.5), it may lead to both teams tightening their defensive efforts, reducing the chances of any single player, including Lendeborg, scoring heavily.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg has been a key scorer for the Michigan Wolverines, consistently contributing points in high-pressure games, which supports his ability to exceed 14.5 points.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense may struggle against versatile scorers like Lendeborg, particularly given their recent challenges in containment during pivotal matchups.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 158.5 for this game, it's expected to be a high-scoring affair, which favors individual players like Lendeborg to achieve higher point totals.
- →TREND: The Wolverines are on a strong winning streak (W1), and Lendeborg’s recent performances indicate he tends to rise to the occasion during crucial moments in competitive games.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Michigan’s current away record of 9-0, the team is displaying confidence in away games, which typically leads to improved performances from key players like Lendeborg in crucial matchups.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg has recently demonstrated inconsistency in scoring, as there are no detailed stats available showing him frequently exceeding 14.5 points this season.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong defensive reputation, especially at home, which can limit Lendeborg's scoring opportunities against their aggressive defense.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's high total of 158.5, there may be a focus on team play leading to a more balanced distribution of points rather than relying on individual performances like Lendeborg to exceed 14.5.
- →TREND: Recent performance indicates that Lendeborg may have struggled to find his rhythm, as his recent games include instances of scoring significantly below the 14.5 point threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the game being closely contested (spread of just +1.5), it may lead to both teams tightening their defensive efforts, reducing the chances of any single player, including Lendeborg, scoring heavily.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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