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Andrej Stojakovic Over 10.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110— stable

player points

Andrej Stojakovic Over 10.5 points

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110— stable

player points

33.50

Composite Score

-10.7%

Net EV

65.00

Narrative Fit

36.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The analysis indicates a net EV of -0.11, signaling that this wager is overpriced given the current context. While there are arguments that support Stojakovic's ability to exceed 10.5 points, including his strong average and favorable matchup against Illinois, the concerns around defensive effectiveness and competition for shot opportunities suggest he may struggle to score in a high-pressure environment. This risk of volatility and the tight game spread make it prudent to avoid betting on this line.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Andrej Stojakovic has had a strong scoring presence this season, averaging over 11 points per game, which aligns well with exceeding the 10.5-point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense has struggled against perimeter shooters, particularly in high-scoring games, which could provide Stojakovic ample opportunity to hit his point total.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, the pace of this matchup is expected to be fast, leading to more scoring opportunities for all players involved, including Stojakovic.
→TREND: Stojakovic has been trending upward recently, scoring 12 or more points in three of his last five games, indicating his current form is conducive to exceeding this line.
→SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong home record of 13-2, creating a competitive atmosphere that could motivate Stojakovic and the team to perform better offensively, contributing to him surpassing 10.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for individual player stats of Andrej Stojakovic, but considering his role as a guard for a well-balanced team, it suggests he may not take the lead in scoring.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense is ranked highly in the conference, potentially limiting scoring opportunities for opposing guards like Stojakovic.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 158.5, the game is expected to be competitive, which typically means more focus on defense, potentially keeping Stojakovic's scoring lower than needed to exceed 10.5 points.
→TREND: Data not available on Stojakovic's recent scoring performance, but historically, younger players can struggle with consistency in high-pressure situations, making it difficult to predict exceeding double digits.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 indicates a tightly contested game, which could lead to lower individual scoring as teams focus more on execution and defense in critical moments.

Thesis: moderate

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Andrej Stojakovic has had a strong scoring presence this season, averaging over 11 points per game, which aligns well with exceeding the 10.5-point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense has struggled against perimeter shooters, particularly in high-scoring games, which could provide Stojakovic ample opportunity to hit his point total.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, the pace of this matchup is expected to be fast, leading to more scoring opportunities for all players involved, including Stojakovic.
→TREND: Stojakovic has been trending upward recently, scoring 12 or more points in three of his last five games, indicating his current form is conducive to exceeding this line.
→SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong home record of 13-2, creating a competitive atmosphere that could motivate Stojakovic and the team to perform better offensively, contributing to him surpassing 10.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2