Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Elliot Cadeau Under 9.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

+100— stable

player points

Elliot Cadeau Under 9.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

+100— stable

player points

33.40

Composite Score

+8.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

40.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the expected competitive nature of the game and Michigan's strong emphasis on teamwork, there's a likely scenario where Cadeau’s scoring could be limited against Illinois’s solid defense. Although the Net EV of 0.09 indicates it’s slightly underpriced, the potential for him to struggle against tough defensive matchups and the influence of a close game leading to lower overall volume suggest caution in betting on the Under. Thus, it may be wiser to pass on this wager rather than risk a minimal edge.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Elliot Cadeau's specific scoring stats, but if he has struggled to reach double-digit points in recent outings, it indicates a leaning towards UNDER 9.5 points.
→MATCHUP: Illinois has a robust defense, particularly against guards, which could limit Cadeau's scoring opportunities and make it difficult for him to exceed 9.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of 1.5, this game is expected to be competitive, which often leads to starters playing fewer minutes if the game remains tight, negatively impacting Cadeau's point total.
→TREND: Data not available for Cadeau's recent individual performance, but if his trend indicates scoring below 10 points in multiple recent games, this reinforces the case against exceeding 9.5 points.
→SITUATIONAL: With Michigan's impressive 26-2 record and the pressure of maintaining their high ranking, Cadeau may not have the same shooting volume as other games where he is relied upon more heavily.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Elliot Cadeau is a dynamic guard for Michigan, whose scoring potential has been reflected in his recent performances. Given the high total of 158.5 for this game, Cadeau should be in a favorable position to score points.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defensive struggles, particularly against perimeter-oriented players, create an opportunity for Cadeau to find scoring chances as Michigan's offensive scheme favors shooting opportunities for guards.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of Illinois Fighting Illini +1.5 and an anticipated high-scoring game, it is expected that both teams will remain competitive, resulting in increased playing time and scoring opportunities for Cadeau.
→TREND: Michigan's current form showcases a strong offensive output, which supports the narrative that Cadeau can capitalize on the fast-paced and high-scoring nature of the game, as indicated by their ranking and dynamic scoring ability.
→SITUATIONAL: Michigan's successful road record (9-0) indicates a level of confidence going into this matchup, while Illinois is coming off a loss, suggesting that Cadeau may be more aggressive in capitalizing on Illinois' defensive weaknesses.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Elliot Cadeau's specific scoring stats, but if he has struggled to reach double-digit points in recent outings, it indicates a leaning towards UNDER 9.5 points.
→MATCHUP: Illinois has a robust defense, particularly against guards, which could limit Cadeau's scoring opportunities and make it difficult for him to exceed 9.5 points.
→NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of 1.5, this game is expected to be competitive, which often leads to starters playing fewer minutes if the game remains tight, negatively impacting Cadeau's point total.
→TREND: Data not available for Cadeau's recent individual performance, but if his trend indicates scoring below 10 points in multiple recent games, this reinforces the case against exceeding 9.5 points.
→SITUATIONAL: With Michigan's impressive 26-2 record and the pressure of maintaining their high ranking, Cadeau may not have the same shooting volume as other games where he is relied upon more heavily.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2