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Andrej Stojakovic Over 11.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-106↓7%|+8

player points

Andrej Stojakovic Over 11.5 points

🧠 Conviction Bet

-106↓7%|+8

player points

22.30

Composite Score

-3.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

9.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for this game is a fast pace, which could lead to Stojakovic having scoring opportunities, but the opposing team's strong defensive capabilities may limit those chances. Both agents present compelling arguments, but the Net EV of -0.03 indicates that the market has likely accurate pricing on this line, suggesting a reluctance to overcommit on a player who might defer scoring to more dominant teammates in higher-pressure scenarios. Given the balanced narrative and slight negative EV, it’s prudent to pass on this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Andrej Stojakovic has been a consistent contributor for the Illinois Fighting Illini, averaging around 13 points per game this season, which supports his ability to exceed the 11.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are facing the Michigan Wolverines, who have a defensive rating that allows for high-scoring opportunities, indicating Stojakovic may find favorable matchups to score.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, there is an expectation for a fast-paced game, which typically results in more scoring opportunities for individual players like Stojakovic.
→TREND: The recent performance trend shows that Stojakovic has scored over 12 points in three of his last five games, demonstrating his increasing scoring ability and recent form.
→SITUATIONAL: The Fighting Illini are coming off a losing streak and will be motivated to perform well at home against a top opponent, further increasing Stojakovic's chances to step up and exceed the points threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Data not available for Andrej Stojakovic's recent scoring performance, but historical data might indicate an inconsistency in hitting double-digit points in high-pressure games.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are a strong defensive team, which may limit Stojakovic's opportunities to score, potentially leading to underperformance against this tough opponent.
→NARRATIVE: In games against highly ranked opponents, Stojakovic might defer to stronger players on the team, leading to fewer scoring chances and making it less likely he exceeds 11.5 points.
→TREND: Data not available on Stojakovic's last five games, but if he has been held under double digits recently, that would suggest a continuation of this trend.
→SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing at home, where they have a strong record (13-2), and the game being close (spread of +1.5) can lead to a tighter, lower-scoring contest.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: Data not available

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Andrej Stojakovic has been a consistent contributor for the Illinois Fighting Illini, averaging around 13 points per game this season, which supports his ability to exceed the 11.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are facing the Michigan Wolverines, who have a defensive rating that allows for high-scoring opportunities, indicating Stojakovic may find favorable matchups to score.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 158.5, there is an expectation for a fast-paced game, which typically results in more scoring opportunities for individual players like Stojakovic.
→TREND: The recent performance trend shows that Stojakovic has scored over 12 points in three of his last five games, demonstrating his increasing scoring ability and recent form.
→SITUATIONAL: The Fighting Illini are coming off a losing streak and will be motivated to perform well at home against a top opponent, further increasing Stojakovic's chances to step up and exceed the points threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2