Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Tomislav Ivisic Over 14.5 points alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+285↓311%|+420
player points alternate
Tomislav Ivisic Over 14.5 points alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+285↓311%|+420
player points alternate
58.20
Composite Score
+26.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
70.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game between Michigan and Illinois is expected to feature a high pace, which aligns with the potential for Ivisic to exceed the 14.5 points mark given Illinois' recent scoring uptick and the nature of their matchup against a Michigan team struggling to defend big men. Despite concerns over Ivisic's overall scoring average, the Net EV of 0.27 indicates that this bet is underpriced, reflecting favorable conditions such as significant minutes and scoring opportunities that are likely to arise in a competitive, fast-paced game.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tomislav Ivisic has been showing a consistent scoring ability, evidenced by averaging over 10 points per game in recent contests, which surpasses the 9.5 point threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing against a Michigan Wolverines team that struggles defensively against big men, which bodes well for Ivisic's scoring opportunities near the basket.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 158.5 indicates an expected fast-paced game with plenty of possessions, which will likely result in more scoring opportunities for Ivisic.
- →TREND: Illinois has witnessed recent performances where their offensive efficiency has increased, shown by their scoring output averaging more than 75 points per game over the last few outings, which supports Ivisic's scoring chance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 suggests a competitive game where Illinois will utilize their key players fully, ensuring Ivisic receives significant minutes on the court to contribute to the scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 50%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tomislav Ivisic's scoring average has generally hovered around 8 points per game this season, indicating that exceeding 9.5 points is statistically unlikely based on his performance history.
- →MATCHUP: Michigan Wolverines boast one of the top defenses in the Big Ten, which could limit Ivisic's scoring opportunities significantly during this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 158.5 expected points, there may be more focus on leading scorers for both teams, causing Ivisic to take a backseat as primary scorers dominate the offense.
- →TREND: Ivisic has posted fewer than 10 points in several recent games, which points to a concerning trend of underperformance when it comes to hitting scoring marks above 9.5.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the competitive nature of this closely matched game, there is a high likelihood that Ivisic will play fewer minutes, limiting his chances to score, especially down the stretch of a tight contest.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.ncaab.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tomislav Ivisic has been showing a consistent scoring ability, evidenced by averaging over 10 points per game in recent contests, which surpasses the 9.5 point threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are playing against a Michigan Wolverines team that struggles defensively against big men, which bodes well for Ivisic's scoring opportunities near the basket.
- →NARRATIVE: The high total of 158.5 indicates an expected fast-paced game with plenty of possessions, which will likely result in more scoring opportunities for Ivisic.
- →TREND: Illinois has witnessed recent performances where their offensive efficiency has increased, shown by their scoring output averaging more than 75 points per game over the last few outings, which supports Ivisic's scoring chance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 suggests a competitive game where Illinois will utilize their key players fully, ensuring Ivisic receives significant minutes on the court to contribute to the scoring.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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