Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Tomislav Ivisic Over 10.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1300↓341%|+1005
player rebounds alternate
Tomislav Ivisic Over 10.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1300↓341%|+1005
player rebounds alternate
41.90
Composite Score
+25.1%
Net EV
20.00
Narrative Fit
75.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
While the expectation for a fast-paced game could lead to more rebounds for Tomislav Ivisic, significant opposing factors complicate this wager. Although he has a decent history of rebounding, Michigan's strong rebounding capabilities may limit his opportunities, especially considering his recent struggles. With a final Net EV of 0.25, the bet doesn't present a strong enough favor, aligning more with the anti-agent's narrative that suggests he may struggle to exceed the 10.5 rebound mark on this occasion.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 50%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tomislav Ivisic has demonstrated a solid rebounding ability in previous games, averaging around 8.2 rebounds per game in his last five contests, indicating he is well-positioned to exceed 7.5 rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini face off against Michigan Wolverines, who rank lower in rebounding margin, suggesting that Ivisic could exploit this favorable matchup for more rebounding opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's high total of 158.5, a fast-paced matchup is expected, leading to more possessions and shot opportunities, which will likely increase Ivisic's chances of grabbing rebounds.
- →TREND: Ivisic has averaged 9 rebounds in home games this season, indicating a strong trend when playing on home court where he gains more confidence and more opportunities.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 for Illinois indicates a competitive game, likely resulting in less garbage time and thus allowing Ivisic to stay on the floor longer to accumulate rebounds.
Thesis: weak
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.ncaa.com/, https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tomislav Ivisic's recent performance shows he has struggled to secure rebounds, with a current average of fewer than 7.5 rebounds per game in his last few outings.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines rank among the best rebounding teams in the Big Ten, which may limit Ivisic's opportunities to grab boards against their tall and physical front line.
- →NARRATIVE: With the total set at 158.5, the game may favor a fast pace with more scoring, which often leads to fewer contested rebounds as shots are taken quickly and defensive positioning may be compromised.
- →TREND: Ivisic’s recent games have shown a downward trend in rebound production, indicating he has not hit or exceeded the 7.5 rebound threshold in several consecutive matchups.
- →SITUATIONAL: Illinois is coming off a loss and might adjust their lineup or strategy to focus on other offensive players, possibly limiting Ivisic's court time or rebounding chances.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 50%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tomislav Ivisic has demonstrated a solid rebounding ability in previous games, averaging around 8.2 rebounds per game in his last five contests, indicating he is well-positioned to exceed 7.5 rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini face off against Michigan Wolverines, who rank lower in rebounding margin, suggesting that Ivisic could exploit this favorable matchup for more rebounding opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game's high total of 158.5, a fast-paced matchup is expected, leading to more possessions and shot opportunities, which will likely increase Ivisic's chances of grabbing rebounds.
- →TREND: Ivisic has averaged 9 rebounds in home games this season, indicating a strong trend when playing on home court where he gains more confidence and more opportunities.
- →SITUATIONAL: The close spread of +1.5 for Illinois indicates a competitive game, likely resulting in less garbage time and thus allowing Ivisic to stay on the floor longer to accumulate rebounds.
Thesis: weak
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.ncaa.com/, https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/
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