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Dorian Finney-Smith Over 9.5 points alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+325— stable
player points alternate
Dorian Finney-Smith Over 9.5 points alternate
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+325— stable
player points alternate
25.60
Composite Score
-3.8%
Net EV
35.00
Narrative Fit
0.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the negative Net EV of -0.04, it suggests that this bet on Dorian Finney-Smith Over 9.5 points is overpriced based on current market conditions. The narrative leans unfavorable as Finney-Smith has averaged only 3.6 points in his last five games, making it difficult for him to meet the 9.5 point mark, particularly in a matchup where the Houston Rockets are heavily favored and may limit his playing time if the score gets out of hand. The combination of his recent performance trends and the game script implies that scoring opportunities may be scarce for him, warranting a pass on this bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Dorian Finney-Smith's current scoring average is 8.7 points per game, close to the 9.5 threshold, indicating he is capable of reaching this mark with just a slight increase.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a record of 34-21 and are currently the 4th seed in the playoffs, which could lead to a competitive environment that favors increased scoring opportunities for all players, including Finney-Smith.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets having a significant spread of -13.5, this indicates expectations for a high-scoring game where more points could be scored overall, creating scoring opportunities for Finney-Smith.
- →TREND: In the last five games, while his scoring has averaged only 3.6 points, the fluctuations in scoring throughout the season suggest that he can have breakout games, especially against a higher-seeded team like the Rockets.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are on a two-game losing streak, and with a record of 18-39, they may struggle defensively, allowing Finney-Smith to take advantage of the matchup and exceed the 9.5 points threshold.
Thesis: moderate
Market: slightly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Dorian Finney-Smith has averaged only 3.6 points over his last 5 games, significantly below the 9.5 point threshold, indicating he is unlikely to exceed this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored in this matchup with a spread of -13.5, suggesting they might dominate, potentially limiting Finney-Smith's scoring opportunities if he doesn't play significant minutes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, if the game becomes a blowout, it is likely that Finney-Smith will not see enough court time to accumulate the necessary points to exceed 9.5.
- →TREND: Over his last 5 games, Finney-Smith's production has significantly dropped, with point totals of 2, 5, and 1 points in his latest games, reflecting a downward trend that makes exceeding 9.5 points unlikely.
- →SITUATIONAL: Finney-Smith's average minutes of 28.9 may not be reflective in this game, particularly if the Rockets establish a lead and utilize their bench, resulting in fewer minutes for him.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Dorian Finney-Smith's current scoring average is 8.7 points per game, close to the 9.5 threshold, indicating he is capable of reaching this mark with just a slight increase.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a record of 34-21 and are currently the 4th seed in the playoffs, which could lead to a competitive environment that favors increased scoring opportunities for all players, including Finney-Smith.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets having a significant spread of -13.5, this indicates expectations for a high-scoring game where more points could be scored overall, creating scoring opportunities for Finney-Smith.
- →TREND: In the last five games, while his scoring has averaged only 3.6 points, the fluctuations in scoring throughout the season suggest that he can have breakout games, especially against a higher-seeded team like the Rockets.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz are on a two-game losing streak, and with a record of 18-39, they may struggle defensively, allowing Finney-Smith to take advantage of the matchup and exceed the 9.5 points threshold.
Thesis: moderate
Market: slightly disagree
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