Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 3.5 points q1
💤 Noise Bet
-148— stable
player points q1
Amen Thompson Over 3.5 points q1
💤 Noise Bet
-148— stable
player points q1
37.70
Composite Score
-11.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
58.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expected game narrative suggests a dominant performance by the Rockets, which could limit Amen Thompson's minutes and scoring opportunities, particularly in the first quarter. The combination of a significant -13.5 spread indicates a potential blowout, supporting the anti-agent's viewpoint that Thompson may not play enough to exceed the 3.5 points mark. With a Net EV of -0.12, the analysis indicates the bet is priced too high given these concerns, making it a pass.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points in his last five games, well above the 3.5 points threshold. Additionally, he has recorded an average of 12.8 FG attempts per game recently, indicating a high volume of scoring opportunities.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a substantial offensive rating, which often translates to a faster-paced game. This increased pace can lead to more possessions and scoring chances for Thompson, who plays a key role in the Rockets' offense.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5, the expectation is that the Rockets will dominate the game, leading to a situation where Thompson could have extended minutes in the first quarter to establish a lead, increasing his chances to score early.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Thompson's scoring production shows a willingness to be aggressive; with an average of 3.6 free throw attempts per game, indicating he is not only shooting but also drawing fouls, which can lead to easy points.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson has been playing heavy minutes lately, averaging 41.0 minutes in his last few games, signaling heavy usage due to his pivotal role in the Rockets' rotation, which enhances his opportunity to exceed the point threshold in the first quarter.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has been averaging only 16.0 points over the last five games, indicating he is not consistently performing at a level that would allow him to exceed 3.5 points in the first quarter.
- →MATCHUP: The Rockets' recent performance, being favored by a significant 13.5 points, suggests a potential blowout scenario, which often results in starters, including Thompson, playing fewer minutes to preserve them for future games.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that Thompson has not yet demonstrated a propensity to score quickly in the first quarter – as seen in previous games where he didn't meet early quarter scoring thresholds – the expectation that he will exceed 3.5 points isn’t robust.
- →TREND: In his recent five-game span, Thompson has been scoring less efficiently from the floor, with a 3P% of 0.0% and mediocre overall scoring, showing that hitting the 3.5 points mark in the first quarter could be challenging for him.
- →SITUATIONAL: The large spread against Utah means the game may not be competitive, leading to reduced playing time for Thompson if the Rockets gain a significant lead, which further jeopardizes his chances of exceeding 3.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 16.0 points in his last five games, well above the 3.5 points threshold. Additionally, he has recorded an average of 12.8 FG attempts per game recently, indicating a high volume of scoring opportunities.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a substantial offensive rating, which often translates to a faster-paced game. This increased pace can lead to more possessions and scoring chances for Thompson, who plays a key role in the Rockets' offense.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5, the expectation is that the Rockets will dominate the game, leading to a situation where Thompson could have extended minutes in the first quarter to establish a lead, increasing his chances to score early.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Thompson's scoring production shows a willingness to be aggressive; with an average of 3.6 free throw attempts per game, indicating he is not only shooting but also drawing fouls, which can lead to easy points.
- →SITUATIONAL: Thompson has been playing heavy minutes lately, averaging 41.0 minutes in his last few games, signaling heavy usage due to his pivotal role in the Rockets' rotation, which enhances his opportunity to exceed the point threshold in the first quarter.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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