Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 0.5 blocks

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+250— stable

player blocks

Tobias Harris Over 0.5 blocks

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+250— stable

player blocks

30.10

Composite Score

-2.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

10.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The narrative suggests a high-scoring game featuring increased pace, which would typically support the notion that Tobias Harris could accumulate blocks. However, the evidence from both agents indicates that Harris has consistently failed to record blocks recently, showing a clear trend against him exceeding the threshold. This discrepancy, paired with a Net EV of -0.02, suggests that the market is accurately priced, making this a bet to pass on.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has a season average of 0.8 blocks per game, which is well above the 0.5 threshold, indicating he regularly contributes defensively in this category.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently ranked 2nd in their division, which suggests that they are a competitive team that will push the pace, leading to more defensive opportunities for Harris to accumulate blocks.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a high total of 232.5, indicating an expected high-scoring match, which often results in increased chances for rebounds and blocks as teams engage in fast-paced exchanges.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, while Harris has recorded 0 blocks, he typically plays around 31.6 minutes per game, allowing for significant opportunities to accumulate blocks, especially in a competitive setting like this.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons have a record of 42-13 and are on a 5-game winning streak, suggesting they will be motivated to maintain their momentum against a strong opponent like the Spurs, which could lead to more intense play from Harris.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris's recent averages show that he has not recorded a block in his last 5 games against various opponents, including zero blocks when playing against the Spurs.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently ranked as one of the higher-scoring teams in the league, which generally leads to fewer defensive opportunities for Harris, diminishing the chances he will accumulate blocks.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's projected high total of 232.5 points, it suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring scenario where defensive stats like blocks are less likely to occur as players focus on offense.
→TREND: In the last five games played, Tobias Harris has consistently underperformed in blocks, averaging 0.0 blocks, which indicates a significant trend against him exceeding that total in the upcoming game.
→SITUATIONAL: The context of the game features a tightly contested match with a small spread of -1.5, which might result in fewer garbage time minutes and limited chances for Harris to get blocks as starters need to play hard until the end.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has a season average of 0.8 blocks per game, which is well above the 0.5 threshold, indicating he regularly contributes defensively in this category.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently ranked 2nd in their division, which suggests that they are a competitive team that will push the pace, leading to more defensive opportunities for Harris to accumulate blocks.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a high total of 232.5, indicating an expected high-scoring match, which often results in increased chances for rebounds and blocks as teams engage in fast-paced exchanges.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, while Harris has recorded 0 blocks, he typically plays around 31.6 minutes per game, allowing for significant opportunities to accumulate blocks, especially in a competitive setting like this.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons have a record of 42-13 and are on a 5-game winning streak, suggesting they will be motivated to maintain their momentum against a strong opponent like the Spurs, which could lead to more intense play from Harris.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

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