Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 0.5 blocks

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+260— stable

player blocks

Duncan Robinson Over 0.5 blocks

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+260— stable

player blocks

27.60

Composite Score

-8.9%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

24.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the Net EV of -0.09, this bet on Duncan Robinson Over 0.5 blocks does not make sense. The opposing analysis highlights that his average of 0.1 blocks per game and a trend of not recording blocks in his last four games suggest low potential for exceeding 0.5 blocks. Additionally, the Spurs' efficient scoring limits his opportunities to contest shots, further undermining the bet's validity.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 0.1 blocks per game this season, but he recorded 1.0 block in one of his recent games against the Detroit Pistons, indicating potential for exceeding the 0.5 blocks threshold in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' offensive playstyle may lead to more shots taken in the paint, giving Robinson more opportunities to contest shots and potentially accrue blocks against their key scorers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game total of 232.5 and small spread of -1.5, a high-scoring and competitive game script is expected, which could require Robinson to play more minutes and be more active on defense.
→TREND: Robinson's recent performance against the Pistons includes multiple games where he was able to secure blocks, indicating he has a higher chance of exceeding 0.5 blocks based on past matchups with this team.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams in great form, Robinson may see increased minutes in a high-stakes game, and the importance of the matchup could enhance his focus and activity defensively, creating more opportunities for blocks.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson averages only 0.1 blocks per game this season, and his recent five-game performance reflects zero blocks in four of those games, making it highly unlikely he will exceed 0.5 blocks.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams in the league, which reduces the likelihood of Robinson attempting to block shots. Known for their efficient scoring and ball movement, they minimize opportunities for individual players to record blocks.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's projected high total scoring (232.5 points), it indicates a fast pace, which leads to fewer defensive possessions for Duncan Robinson, further reducing the possibility for him to accumulate blocks.
→TREND: In the last five games, Robinson recorded a total of only one block across multiple matchups, indicating a trend of underperformance in defensive statistics during critical minutes of play.
→SITUATIONAL: Duncan Robinson typically plays around 24.1 minutes per game, and fatigue or load management may limit his presence on defense, especially against a shooting team like the Spurs that often scores quickly and creates transition opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, Feature Factory

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 0.1 blocks per game this season, but he recorded 1.0 block in one of his recent games against the Detroit Pistons, indicating potential for exceeding the 0.5 blocks threshold in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' offensive playstyle may lead to more shots taken in the paint, giving Robinson more opportunities to contest shots and potentially accrue blocks against their key scorers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game total of 232.5 and small spread of -1.5, a high-scoring and competitive game script is expected, which could require Robinson to play more minutes and be more active on defense.
→TREND: Robinson's recent performance against the Pistons includes multiple games where he was able to secure blocks, indicating he has a higher chance of exceeding 0.5 blocks based on past matchups with this team.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams in great form, Robinson may see increased minutes in a high-stakes game, and the importance of the matchup could enhance his focus and activity defensively, creating more opportunities for blocks.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

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