In this matchup, the expected narrative leans towards a defensively challenging environment for Robinson, especially with the Spurs being a strong defensive team and Robinson's recent struggles in scoring. Although there is some evidence supporting that he could score above 2.5 points, the more compelling argument lies in his limited production and the challenging matchup, which aligns with the low-scoring script anticipated in the game. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates a slight edge but is not sufficient to justify a bet, given the stronger bearish context from the agents.